As lockdown restrictions resurfaced across much of the UK in the fourth quarter, the effects have started to show already in October’s monthly GDP print, which posted a 0.4% advance against the 1.1% advance we saw in September. The general expectation is for a Q4 contraction in GDP as a whole as the economy continues to deflate from the record June growth rate as we bounced out of the first wave of the pandemic.

“This monthly print shows the continual damaging effects of the pandemic, sapping any consumer and business confidence and now the UK economy is nearly 8% smaller than it was in January this year. As talks continue between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the EU President von der Leyen, with the deadline to reach an agreement further extended to this Sunday, the outlook for the UK economy looks precarious.

The Prime Minister was perhaps too characteristically upbeat when he said just a month ago that the next few months are going to be ‘bumpy’.”